Week of May 4th - EUR/USD

[schuon]

Hi everyone,

This is my second week here. :) I've watch some video archives but still confused.

Plan A and B for EUR/USD: Trying to go either direction.
***According to latest Bias/Key Nos (1.3311 which is 11 pips over), this should be bullish if I undestand it correctly. Therefore, Plan A is to buy when the price at or above 1.3328.
5/3/09 5/3/09
EUR/USD Bought Sold
Entry 1.3328 -1.3291
Stop Loss 1.3301 1.3301
TP1 1.3355 1.3260
TP2 1.3382 1.3273

I also setup a trigger for Sold (Plan B above). Please let me know if I am on-track or not.

[Goshen]

My plan for the week is as follows

EUR/USD
Plan A
Buy @ 1.3329
Stop @ 1.3301
TP1 @ 1.3359
TP2 @ 1.3419 (key #s)
GT - will trail by 40 pips

Plan B
Sell @ 1.3177
Stop @ 1.3192 (M1 #)
TP1 @ 1.3133 (key #)
TP2 @ 1.3077 (just some few pips above the 3072 key #)
GT - will trail by 40 pips


Plan C
If Pair moves above 1.3300 to 1.3329 & reverses
Sell @ 1.3291
Stop @ 1.3315 (just some few pips above the 3311 key #)
TP1 @ 1.3260 (some 8 pips under the 3268 bias #)
TP2 @ 1.3192 (M1 #)
GT - will trail by 40 pips

"German Retail Sales once again disappointed to the downside shrinking by -1.0% versus expectations only a -0.1% decline as consumer demand in Eurozone’s largest economy remains moribund. This was the sixth negative reading in the past seven months and the worst rate of contraction since December of 2008 when Retail sales declined by -1.6%.

The news almost assures that ECB will lower rates by expected by 25bp this upcoming Thursday to 1% as economic conditions in the region remain grim. Over the past several weeks the data from the 16 member union has shown some signs of improvement especially in the badly damaged industrial sector, but today’s retail sales reading suggests that while production may have hit bottom in Q1 of 2009, commencing a rebound in Q2, consumption remains badly damaged as concerns over the labor market contraction have forced EZ consumers to retrench.

The EUR/USD fell mildly in the aftermath of the report dropping through the 1.3300 barrier, but the reaction was not overly dramatic given the fact that the Retail Sales data was for March and therefore relatively dated. Last week, the latest Retail PMI readings for April showed a marked improvement in demand and the currency market therefore shrugged off today’s news anticipating better results going forward."


GBP/USD
Plan A
Buy @ 1.5000
Stop @ 1.4986 (R1 #)
TP1 @ 1.5045 (just some few pips below the R2 #)
TP2 @ 1.5111 (Key #)
GT - will trail by 40 pips

Plan B
Sell @ 1.4800
Stop @ 1.4836 (M2 #)
TP1 @ 1.4770 (30 pips)
TP2 @ 1.4686 (S2 #)
GT - will trail by 40 pips

Plan C
If Pair breaks 1.5000 to above 1.5045/68 and reverses
Sell @ 1.4997
Stop @ 1.5018 (M4 #)
TP1 @ 1.4967 (bias #)
TP2 @ 1.4897 (100 pips)
GT - will trail by 40 pips

George Olu
All the majors; Loonie, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY

[Webster]

Goshen

I exercised your plan C after I looked at the charts and saw the
pair had moved above 1.3340 and reversed to 1.3300.

The sellstop just got hit and its at 1.3287

The pair has recently moved 1.3329 to 1.3340 and reversed to 1.3300 so I placed the following trade per recommendation.



SellStop 1 lot @ 1.3291/SL 1.3311/TP 1 1.3251 Risk/Reward 1:2

SellStop 1 lot @ 1.3291/SL 1.3311/TP 2 1.3221 Risk/Reward 1:3

SellStop 1 lot@ 1.3291/SL 1.3311/TP 3 Run & Manage



Once TP1 executes then I move the SL for 2 & 3 to 1.3292

(Breakeven + 1)



So in order to be ready in the event the market goes the opposite direction I placed the following trade.



BuyStop 1 lot @1.3329/SL 1.3009/TP 1 1.3369 Risk/Reward 1:2

BuyStop 1 lot @1.3329/SL 1.3009/TP 2 1.3399 Risk/Reward 1:3

BuyStop 1 lot @1.3329/SL 1.3009/TP 3 Run & Manage



Once TP1 executes then I move the SL for 2 & 3 to 1.3330

(Breakeven + 1).


Webster
E/$

[Webster]

And here are the results

Account: 6333154 Name: Randy Pendl Currency: USD 2009 May 4, 16:33
Closed Transactions:

TP1
2009.05.04 11:23 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.3291 1.3311 1.3251 2009.05.04 13:59 1.3251 0.00 0.00 0.00 400.00

TP2
2009.05.04 11:23 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.3291 1.3311 1.3221 2009.05.04 15:08 1.3221 0.00 0.00 0.00 700.00

GT
2009.05.04 11:23 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.3291 1.3274 0.0000 2009.05.04 16:26 1.3267 0.00 0.00 0.00 240.00

I fell asleep before TP1 so I never moved SL to Breakeven + 1
or added a TSL to GT so I just exited when I saw what happened.

Hallaleuh!!!!

I see the light.

Webster
E/$

[Ricky Tse]

Congrats, Webster (or Randy?)! Hallelujah both ways today since the sell stop and then later on the buy stop get triggered and produce profit! :-)

Regards,
Ricky - EUR/USD

[Webster]

Congratulations to you also Ricky.

I was able to get back to my PC and closed the GT at 1.3380 on the upside.

I again missed the TP1 and again didn't adjust SL but this one worked fabulous in both directions. Now this something to be excited about.

This system is a life changer.

Webster (RP:))

E/$

[Goshen]

Congratulations Webster, this is indeed amazing business. Yes we made good trades today in plans C and then A. Plan A of the GBP also got triggered but was stopped out for a small loss and triggered again this PM.

Good job, and this is why we all should share our plans and can be an encouragement/challenge to each other. Sarath was the person that pushed me to sharing my plans and I regularly watch to see what others are doing to corroborate my thoughts.

Cheers, and God bless

George Olu
All the majors; Loonie, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY

[sarath]

Good job .. it helps to share your plan's as others can benefit and at the same time if there is a variance, someone can point out

sarath

E, P, Canadian, JPY crosses

[ForexJoe]

Great Work everyone. Awesome thread... Keep building the foundation...

Thanks for your effort,

Joe

[Ricky Tse]

Hi,

Using Joe's trade alert, here are the trade plans for EUR/USD on May 5, 2009.

Plan A: Buy Break 1.3480 and clear 1.3525

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3480 Buy
SL: 1.3455 25 pips Standard
T1: 1.3505 25 pips 1.3500 Key
T2: 1.3530 50 pips 1.3527 Key + M4
BE+1: 1.3481
R/R ratio: 2 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Plan B: Sell Break of 1.3395 and clear 1.3364

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3395 Sell
SL: 1.3420 25 pips 1.3419 Key
T1: 1.3370 25 pips 1.3364 Key
T2: 1.3330 65 pips 1.3329 Bottom of Current Wide Channel + Compressed Channel
BE+1: 1.3394
R/R ratio: 2.6 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Plan C: If pair breaks 1.3400 then stalls 1.3364/1.3345 and reverses Buy Break of 1.3400 and clear 1.3425

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3400 Buy
SL: 1.3360 40 pips 1.3364 Key
T1: 1.3440 40 pips 1 to 1; 1.3425 ST21 Hi
T2: 1.3480 80 pips 1.3480 Bias
BE+1: 1.3401
R/R ratio: 2 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[Ricky Tse]

I have attached the price action of EUR/USD from May 5, 2009.

[schuon]

My Trade Plan A didn't kick in somehow. I've to figure out why it didn't get executed. Instead, Trade Plan B kicked in earlier today.

EUR/USD
Entry: (1.3291)
S/L: 1.3301
TP1: 1.3271
TP2: 1.3233

TP1 was reached. Since Slow Sto shows oversold, I bought back another 1/3 of the position before I signed off. I'm happy to get 20-25 pips. My TP2 is set to 1.3233, Joe's S/R Nos.

Speaking of oversold, I will reverse my position if the price bounces back to 1.3260

Entry: 1.3260
S/L: 1.3246
TP1: 1.3303
TP2: 1.3327

[Ricky Tse]

Here are my trade plans based on Joe's report. Please comment.

Plan A: Buy Break 1.3404 and clear 1.3438

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3404 Buy
SL: 1.3374 30 pips -- 1 pip below 1.3375 M3
T1: 1.3434 30 pips -- 4 pips below 1.3438 ST21 Hi
T2: 1.3474 70 pips -- 6 pips below 1.3480 Bias
BE+1: 1.3405
R/R ratio: 2.333333333 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Plan B: Sell Break of 1.3290 and clear 1.3268

Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3290 Sell
SL: 1.3315 25 pips -- 4 pips above 1.3311 Key
T1: 1.3260 30 pips -- 3 pips above 1.3257 S1
T2: 1.3230 60 pips -- 5 pips above 1.3225 M1
BE+1: 1.3289
R/R ratio: 2.4 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[Ricky Tse]

Here are my trade plans for EUR/USD based on Joe's trade alert. Please comment. :-)

Plan A: Buy Break of 1.5175 and clear 1.5220

Currency Pair: GBP/USD
Entry: 1.5175 Buy 1.5175 Bias
SL: 1.5145 30 pips -- 4 pips below 1.5149 ST21 Hi
T1: 1.5210 35 pips -- 2 pips below 1.5212 M4
T2: 1.5235 60 pips -- 2 pips above 1.5235 Key
BE+1: 1.5176
R/R ratio: 2 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Plan B: If pair crosses 1.5200 threshold to 1.5220 and reverses Sell Break 1.5175 and clear 1.5150

Currency Pair: GBP/USD
Entry: 1.5175 Sell
SL: 1.5205 30 pips -- 5 pips above 1.5200 round number
T1: 1.5150 25 pips -- 1 pip above 1.5149 ST 21 Hi
T2: 1.5115 60 pips -- 4 pips above 1.5111 Key
BE+1: 1.5174
R/R ratio: 2 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Plan C: Sell Break of 1.5090 and clear 1.5065

Currency Pair: GBP/USD
Entry: 1.5090 Sell
SL: 1.5115 25 pips -- 4 pips above 1.5111
T1: 1.5065 25 pips -- 3 pips above 1.5062 M2
T2: 1.5040 50 pips -- 5 pips below 1.5045 Bias
BE+1: 1.5089
R/R ratio: 2 to 1
(gravy train) (monthly goal)

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[Joel A]

I have attached the price action of EUR/USD from May 5, 2009.

Ricky,

How did you put all the numbers on your chart? Did you cut and paste? Also what are the numbers you have on there? Are they all the pips you made? Thanks

[Ricky Tse]

Ricky,

How did you put all the numbers on your chart? Did you cut and paste? Also what are the numbers you have on there? Are they all the pips you made? Thanks

Hi Joel,

I have been plotting the Bias and Key Numbers as well as other price levels mentioned in Joe's reports on the chart by drawing horizontal lines. That helps me to have everything in one place. The overlay of Joe's numbers in the MT4 platform will eliminate this step in the future.

Once I have the levels set, I will see how the price reacts around those levels. Let's take EUR/USD as an example. The S1 for today (May 7, 09) is 1.3260 and the Bias number is 1.3268. The price has tested that level several times at the beginning of London session and hold. So I know that level is very strong as support. The price stops and reverses again around 1.3260 during the ECB Press Conference (8:30 a.m. EST). I can play bounces from there and set a tighter stop.

About the numbers that I have on the chart, they are not the pips that I have made. I use that to observe price movement and how long a trend lasts on a 15m chart. I plot that above or below the fractal bars. For example, 6/50 means that price moves in that direction for the last 6 bars (1.5 hrs) and it moves 50 pips from low to high or high to low. This exercise helps me to answer:
1) What is the potential of the market? The movement in EUR/USD will be very different from GBP/JPY in terms of # of pips.
2) How long a trend lasts?
3) Am I in a buyer/seller market today? Is the pair just oscillating in a consolidation mode?
4) Am I in tune with the market with my trading today?

Joe's "Hourly Center Points" and "Trend Report" give the same type of information. I do that in a more detailed and visual level when I plot those numbers on the chart.

Regards,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[dcantin]

Hi Guys,
Here is the trade plan for what I just did.
Sell Eur/USd
3@1.3406
Stop loss: 1.3456
TP1 : 1.3383 (+25)
TP2 : 1.3356 (M3 1.3354 +2)
R:R 2:1
BE +1 :1.3405
Gravy train : I will trail stop 25 points


Buy plan
Buy a break of 1.3400 and clear 1.3454
TP1: 1.3425
TP2: 1.3446 (R2 from STi21 report)
SL: 1.3350
R:R 2:1
BE+1 1.3401

This is the first plan I put in the forum so any comments for improvement would be appreciated.
Thanks to all the experienced traders who are recording your plans because they are really helping me to learn to
Journal and "push the button".
Denise

[dcantin]

Hi,
Eur/USD
Just realized my buy plan doesn't make sense.
I thought I should use the recommendation from the
weekly report but that doesn't work at the moment.
Denise

[juyo]

Thanks Ricky,

For placing you trade plan on the forum I am new to this and I am confused with all the numbers, this helped explain a lot. Can we have more?

I am based in UK and am also confused with the time difference as using the world clock EST I believe is currently -5 hours and -6 US central time difference from UK. However looking at the time the spreadsheets were prepared yesterday the time difference would suggest a -8 hour difference US central as UK is currently GMT +1.

Taken from top of spreadsheet: Prepared: Thursday May 07, 2009 17:06:53 (00:06 GMT) = 7 hours difference + 1 for BST. Can anyone clarify this for me?

Julie
GBP/USD

[ddreyfuss]

Those of us who watched the non-farm payroll class this morning placed (practice) trades going short on the EUR/USD somewhere around 1.3485 about a half hour after the announcement. (The announcement seemed to be significantly positive for the USD since new job losses were down if still high.) However, Joe (and by extension the rest of us) was apparently wrong in his prediction of direction! The first half hour (before entering the trade) was, as predicted, volatile but the preliminary movement on the EUR/USD was UP. After we entered the trade, there was some retracement but not quite to my TP1. Subsequently, movement has been significantly UP (1.3557 as I write this), and we're stopped out.

Anyone have any postmortem analysis as to why we were wrong, when we should have realized it and reversed, or other thoughts?

[Ricky Tse]

Thanks Ricky,

For placing you trade plan on the forum I am new to this and I am confused with all the numbers, this helped explain a lot. Can we have more?

I am based in UK and am also confused with the time difference as using the world clock EST I believe is currently -5 hours and -6 US central time difference from UK. However looking at the time the spreadsheets were prepared yesterday the time difference would suggest a -8 hour difference US central as UK is currently GMT +1.

Taken from top of spreadsheet: Prepared: Thursday May 07, 2009 17:06:53 (00:06 GMT) = 7 hours difference + 1 for BST. Can anyone clarify this for me?

Julie
GBP/USD

You're welcomed, Jule. Feel free to share your trade plan with us and we can learn from each other.

About the timezone, I only look at the GMT time. 00:06 GMT is 8:06 p.m. EDT for me in New York. I treat 17:06 as the time in California.

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[Ricky Tse]

Those of us who watched the non-farm payroll class this morning placed (practice) trades going short on the EUR/USD somewhere around 1.3485 about a half hour after the announcement. (The announcement seemed to be significantly positive for the USD since new job losses were down if still high.) However, Joe (and by extension the rest of us) was apparently wrong in his prediction of direction! The first half hour (before entering the trade) was, as predicted, volatile but the preliminary movement on the EUR/USD was UP. After we entered the trade, there was some retracement but not quite to my TP1. Subsequently, movement has been significantly UP (1.3557 as I write this), and we're stopped out.

Anyone have any postmortem analysis as to why we were wrong, when we should have realized it and reversed, or other thoughts?

Hi ddreyfuss,

For me, I learn that everyone can be wrong (even Joe) and so stop loss is crucial.

About at what point we should have realized that we were wrong, I would say that here are the signs that I can find and it is a gradual realization for me:

1. On 15m chart, I have a fib retracement drawn from 1.3379 low to 1.3515 high. Price stops around 1.3463 (38% retracement level). That's the first sign that price may try again to take out the high.

2. Once the price takes out 1.3515 - a higher high is formed (with a higher low formed around 1.3487 R1). That's a confirmation of an uptrend.

3. Stock market keeps moving higher due to a better than expected NFP number. So EUR/USD goes higher with it as risk appetite improves.

4. Once 1.3527 Key and 1.3538 predicted high for the day have been breached, I now fully realize that I am on the wrong side of the trade.

Regards,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[juyo]

You're welcomed, Jule. Feel free to share your trade plan with us and we can learn from each other.

About the timezone, I only look at the GMT time. 00:06 GMT is 8:06 EDT for me in New York. I treat 17:06 as the time in California.

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

Once again thanks Ricky, however when you say 00:06 is 8:06 EDT, I assume that is pm and would be 20:06 on the 24 hour clock. I don't wish to seem pedantic but I must be clear on this, also is EDT + 1 hour from EST which would still leave 5 hours difference between New York and London in the summer time.

Julie

[Ricky Tse]

Hi Julie,

Yes, I meant 8:06 p.m. or 20:06.

Also, check out the following two websites:

Time conversion:
http://www.timeanddate.com/

Time of operation for stock markets around the world:
http://www.marketclocks.com/

Thanks,
Ricky - EUR/USD