USD /CAD Trade Plan

[sarath]

Joe

Based on your request in the Sunday report for USD/CAD, here is my plan.
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Friday's close is 1.2094 - your chart indicates critical support at 1.1975, which is 119 pips away. The pair had previously got support at these levels in January and April this year and a break of these levels can lead to further downtrend as well, as the crude oil also has firmed up nicely. The FOMC rate decision on April 29 will provide direction, I think.

My plan is close the GT that I have and watch how it unfolds in the next few sessions. I would buy if it dips to 1.2000/1.2025 keeping in mind the support at 1.1975 as the Stop Loss, and sell below 1.1940 with the 1.1980/1.2000 as Stop Loss

sarath

E,P, and Canadian
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***Part of my plan that I had posted earlier this week in a different thread for the USD/CAD***

Based on April 22nd Report, this is my plan for this and next session

Plan B:

Sell: 1.2345 (Below predicted M2)
SL: 1.2385
TP1: 1.2300
TP2: 1.2280 (just above M1)
TP3: Gravy Train

Any other thoughts, please share

sarath
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[Goshen]

Good job Sarath and thanks for always posting your plans as this has really challenged and helped me; and I have spent the last few hours working on my plans for the majors & USD/CAD.

Based on the closing numbers of Friday, I expect the next trading session to be an M1-M3 day and the pair may probably retest the low of 1.1975. The PF numbers for 4/24 should be R1-R3 1.2218; 1.2342; 1.2539. S1-S3 1.2021; 1.1948; 1.1751. M1/M3 #s should be 1.1985/1.2182 and the M2/M4 #s 1.2083/1.2280 and the pivot # 1.2145 if my calculations are correct. Based on these numbers, my plans for next trading session will be as follows:

Plan A
Sell @ 1.2083 (M2 point)
Stop @ 1.2119
TP1 @ 1.2033 (few points below the S1 level)
TP2 @ 1.1985 (hoping this pair will continue towards re-testing the 1975 price)

Plan B
Buy @ 1.2145 (pivot point)
Stop @ 1.2119
TP1 @ 1.2182 (M3 point that this pair needs to go thru if it is to continue higher)
TP2 @ 1.2218+

Let others stalking this pair share their thots, and Joe let us know what you think.

Thanks again Sarath, and God bless.

George Olu
All Majors, E/Y & U$/C$

[sarath]

George

Nice analysis, quite detailed as well.

Both of us have the 1.1975 range in sight and it is quite a critical level. A break of that decisively may make the Nos 1.1575/1.1625 a possibility over time.

Hence, I had the buy at 1.2000 / 1.2025 in my plan as well as sell < 1.1975. I can incorporate your Plan B to cover any move upwards from the Friday lows.

Thanks for your analysis that reinforces my thought.

Regards

sarath

E,P,Canadian

[sarath]

The Canadian broke 1.1975 last week and is around 1.1852 at close Friday. I had a sell order for the critical break of 1.1975 and that gives me some leverage this week. Here are the two short term channels that I follow for the Canadian. These are valid for the following two sessions and have to be updated later as the week unfolds.


Current Wide Channel - 1.2265 - 1.1830
Compressed Channel - 1.1952 -1.1830


Potential Trade:

Strong Support at 1.1830

Plan A:

Sell 1.1805

Stop Loss: 1.1850
TP1: 1.1775
TP2: 1.1740
TP3: 1.1690

If pair hits 1.1950 and bounces, sell on the bounce
If pair hits 1.2150 and bounces, sell on the bounce, must clear 1.2110

Plan B

Buy: 1.1970
Stop Loss: 1.1920
TP1: 1.2000
TP2: 1.2140
TP3: 1.2260 or GT

***Update***

Plan A got stopped out with Loss . . .Monitoring the other parameters laid out . .

Plan A hit again, got TP1 .. and TP2




Sarath

E, P, Canadian

[ForexJoe]

For Current Session Monday to Tuesday afternoon close

M3 1.1811
Bias 1.1805
PIVOT 1.1781
Key 1.1754
BID 1.1722
ST21 Lo 1.1722
SML Lo 1.1722
Key 1.1695
Bias 1.1645
M1 1.1633

[sarath]

Thanks Joe, currently in a bearish channel


sarath

E, P, Canadian, JPY Crosses

[Fx-Rich]

I first started trading USDCAD April 22.
Trading premise: Break higher of 1.2400 possible move to 1.2600, 1.2800 & 1.3000,
If 1.2400 resistance holds follow down to 1.2000 area
April 22:
Long on break of 1.2400 @ 1.2416 Pip Count
TP 1: 1.2466 50
TP 2: 1.2387 -29
TP 3: 1.2387 -29
Total -8

I wasn't awake when these stops and limits were hit so I couldn't move my stops up to BE+1
Reentered short @ 1.2396 upon awaking in the morning.
TP 1: 1.2346 50
TP 2: 1.2394 2
TP 3: 1.2394 2
Total: 54
Running total 46
I was gun shy from getting positions stopped out the night before and getting retraced upon. I was just testing CAD.

I should have been paying closer attention because I missed the quick move from 1.2400 area to 1.2100 on 4/23 to 4/24, but it was a wake-up call.

Now I'm looking for another test of 1.200 area last tested and rejected on 4/15 and 4/16
4/28:
I went short at 1.2159, but only took one position and this was a definite mistake because I had to find more short entry points later
TP1: 1.2049 110
running total 156
4/30:
Re-entered short on a break of 1.2000 at 1.1974
TP1: 1.1912 62
TP2 1.1971 2
TP3 1.1971 2
RT: 222
Retracement high on this day was 1.1975 so my 2nd and 3rd positions just got stopped out.
Re-enter on a break of 1.1900
5/1:
Entered short at 1.1849 (on a Friday so I was hesitate)
TP1 1.1804 45
TP2 1.1762 87
TP3 1.1687 162
Grand Total: 516
I did not think 1.1687 would be hit. Now I'm holding no positions
Now I'm out looking the find retracement channels and judge how much resistance between 1.1700 and 1.2000 area brings. Resistance at 1.1800 appears to be holding for now.
Not bad certainly, but I never gave myself enough wiggle room to get a good GT running. I am reluctant to leave large profits on the table only to see retracements eat them up.
I hope this helps.
Richard Butnik EURUSD, JPYcrosses

[sarath]

Hi

Looks like you have been busy with the CAD. Strong resistance in the 1.1850 range. I would sell if it bounces off that level and also 1.2000/1.2050 bounces. Would buy if it breaks 1.2060 for a ride up!



sarath

E, P, Canadian, JPY Crosses

[sarath]

The Canadian has been a good ride down from 1.1975, providing several opportunities for more selling along the way.

Closed all my positions around 1.1550 as I had thought it would hit 1.1575/1.1600. Never expected it would be so quick.

Crucial Support around 1.1475/1.1500 and also at the bottom of all channels. Would post more on the Canadian as I research over the weekend

sarath

E, P, Canadian, JPY Crosses

[sarath]

Here is my plan for USD / CAD Thursday May 14th - 7:15 ET

Buy: 1.1810
SL: 1.1770
TP1: 1.1850
TP2: 1.1890
TP3: 1.2000


Sell: On bounces around 1.1805 and clear 1.1770

I expect whipsaws in view of the News Driver from the US. Would keep a close watch as there is a good potential for pips

sarath

E,P,Canadian, JPY Crosses

[Ricky Tse]

Nice, Sarath. Thanks for posting your trading plan for USD/CAD. Plan B works out great today as the pair only gets to 1.1788 and comes back down around 8:30 a.m. EST. It is now hovering around 1.1688 Pivot Point.

Thanks,
Ricky - E, P, S, Y

[sarath]

USD/CAD for Sunday May 17

As the EUR weakens, the USD/CAD gains strength

Potential Buy

Buy: 1.1785 (slightly above Friday's close)
SL: 1.1735
TP1: 1.1825
TP2: 1.1855
TP3: GT



Potential Sell

Sell : 1.1725
SL: 1.1765
TP1: 1.1695
TP2: 1.1655
TP3: GT, move up BE

**Update** Both TP1 and TP2 achieved in the "Sell"

Sarath

E, P, Canadian, JPY

[Fx-Rich]

I'm in a short trade from break of 1.1600 at 1.1598

Took tp1 1.1523 75 pips
tp2 1.1462 136
pips booked 207

Moved GT stop to 1.1510
pips lock in: 88

current bid 1.1367
Pips at risk: 143

I'm thinking of tightening GT stop so a retracement will take it out.

Should I tighten, or give my GT lots of wiggle room?

[Fx-Rich]

Update on my trade above,

On GT had a buy limit order where I didn't think would go when I entered trade. Should I have left it without a limit a just managed stop?

GT:
Entry 1.1598
Limit 1.1288

Pips booked 310
tp1 & 2 207
total pips 517

present bid: 1.1208
low 1.1194

Eventhough I booked nice profit, I'm losing out on another 100 pips, or more, by have limit buy out there and not managing it correctly
Now looking for pullback or bottom of channel for safe entry back into market without giving up pips I've already booked.

Richard EURUSD, JPYcrosses (now with USDCAD also)